Kobe Bryant can’t quit basketball, despite the Lakers wallowing in last place of the western conference’s Pacific division.
“I can’t say it is the end,” Bryant said. “I thought the Spurs were done 20 years ago. Those guys are still winning. So, to answer the question, I can’t say this is the end of my era because I thought their [era] was done, and they’re still there. So I’m hoping I can have the same rebirth.”
I think Bryant underestimates how immediate an impact Coach Gregg Popovich has had on the Spurs since he took over as head coach in 1997. San Antonio has made the playoffs each season and won five championships. The Lakers also have five championships over that span, but have missed the playoffs twice and will miss them again this year. Plus, according to the Simple Rating System, which adjusts margin of victory for strength of schedule, San Antonio has not had the ups and downs Los Angeles has had with Bryant on the roster. Nor have the Spurs endured a slide like the Lakers have experienced over the past few seasons.
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Not surprisingly, as Bryant has become less effective, so have the Lakers. Here is Bryant’s win shares compared with Tim Duncan, the cornerstone of the Spurs franchise since his second year in the league (1998-99).
Plus, Bryant has been limited to just 41 games over the past two seasons, and that puts the rest of his career in doubt.
Just 12 players in NBA history have played so few combined games in their age-35 and age-36 seasons and continued their careers at all, only one of them playing more than 56 games afterward.
Michael Jordan: 0 combined games at 35/36, 142 games afterward
Mike James: 11 combined games at 35/36, 56 games afterward
Thurl Bailey: 0 combined games at 35/36, 43 games afterward
James Donaldson: 6 combined games at 35/36, 43 games afterward
John Long: 0 combined games at 35/36, 32 games afterward
Eric Piatkowski: 40 combined games at 35/36, 16 games afterward
Earl Cureton: 2 combined games at 35/36, 9 games afterward
Richie Guerin: 27 combined games at 35/36, 8 games afterward
Bob Cousy: 0 combined games at 35/36, 7 games afterward
Mike Novak: 0 combined games at 35/36, 5 games afterward
Nat Hickey: 0 combined games at 35/36, 2 games afterward
David Wingate: 27 combined games at 35/36, 1 games afterward
“I know what Mitch [Kupchak, the Lakers GM] tells me. I know what Jim and Jeanie [Buss, the team owners] tell me,” Bryant said in January. “I know that they are hell-bent about having a championship caliber team next season, as am I.”
If Bryant is to have his rebirth, here are the two things that need to happen:
Byron Scott has to stop playing him so much
Bryant played more than 34 minutes per game and was used on 34.8 percent of the team’s possessions at 36 years old. In the history of the NBA, only Michael Jordan — during his 2001-02 season with the Washington Wizards — has seen that much usage at age 36 or older. Tim Duncan is 38 years old, plays 30 minutes a night and is used on just 23.6 percent of the Spurs possessions.
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If Bryant does buck the trend from above, Scott will have to find a way to get others involved in the offense and give his aging star some rest.
The Lakers need to get him some help in the form of young talent
The Spurs have restocked the team with young players Danny Green, Cory Joseph and Kawhi Leonard, all of which have been instrumental in keeping the load off Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Lakers have gotten production from 25-year-old Ed Davis, but haven’t seen much else from their young players.
A high draft pick this year combined with a healthy Julius Randle, the No. 7 pick in the 2014 draft, will help, but an improvement of 16 wins just to get into contention for the No. 8 seed is a lot to ask. Not to mention a Spurs’ style rebirth will require at least a 21-win improvement and the right components to contend for a title.
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On the title teams that didn’t feature Shaquille O’Neal, the Lakers were led by Pau Gasol, who was credited with 11.0 and 13.9 win shares, in 2008-09 and 2009-10, respectively. Bryant was second on both those squads (12.7 and 9.4 win shares), so it would take a herculean effort by either someone on the roster already or free agent acquisition to get this team back into contention along with Bryant finding his game at 37 years old. But that’s a tall order considering no player has reached the nine win share mark at age 37 or older since hall of famers Karl Malone and John Stockton did it in Utah during the 2002-03 season.
Sorry Kobe, but it is time to ride off into the sunset.
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